Koreksi Mini Bitcoin Disebut Segera Berakhir
Diterbitkan 04/10/2024, 14/47
Blockchainmedia – There have been a number of arguments from 10x Research regarding Bitcoin’s mini-correction possibly coming to an end. What are they?
In 2024, Bitcoin price movements have become a major concern for crypto investors. After a strong rally at the start of the year, the price correction that has occurred since March has given rise to much speculation among analysts and investors.
An article from Markus Thielen published by 10x Research on Thursday (3/10/2024) discusses whether the recent mini-Bitcoin correction has reached its end, with a focus on various factors influencing the market.
Since March 2024, many optimistic crypto investors or “bulls” have been surprised by an unexpected correction. Although many hoped that the rally would continue, technical indicators showed that the market was already oversaturated, and large sell-offs began to be carried out by long holders or Bitcoin whales as well as the impact of several unlocked tokens on large crypto projects.
On Friday evening, the price of BTC was around US$61,354, down 0.25 percent in 24 hours. Previously, this crypto touched a local low of US$60 thousand on Thursday morning. A deep correction was inevitable to 6.27 percent in the last week.
Thielen said this phenomenon continues to pressure prices, even amid strong inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and increased leverage in the futures market. The bullish narrative that previously dominated the market became neutral due to these opposing influences.
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Token Unlock is the culprit
One of the biggest factors that triggered the price decline was the massive token unlock phenomenon. Since November 2023, token unlocks have reached US$35 billion, with US$31 billion occurring since March 2024.
This large amount, plus the sell-off by whales holding more than 1,000 BTC, has created significant obstacles for Bitcoin prices to move higher and gave rise to Bitcoin’s mini-correction. The combination of outflows from whales and token unlocks with inflows from stablecoins and ETFs is putting considerable pressure on prices.
“Apart from that, the new narrative that is emerging in the second half of 2024 is concern about the US economy, especially the employment sector. Economic data released at the beginning of each month often triggers market fluctuations, thus exacerbating the mini corrections that occur periodically at the beginning of the month. In context “This latest correction in Bitcoin coincides with weaker-than-expected employment data and other economic indicators that are fueling concerns,” he wrote, who some time ago believed that BTC could set a new record by the end of October 2024.
Bitcoin Mini Correction May End Soon
However, Thielen highlighted that Bitcoin’s mini-correction is likely nearing its end. Based on historical data, the decline in Bitcoin prices usually reaches its lowest point between the 5th and 7th of each month, and is now approaching that period.
“This decline was also triggered by weak US manufacturing data as well as concerns about the employment situation in the United States. However, the downward trend in jobless claims suggests that US economic growth remains solid, which could trigger a more measured cycle of interest rate cuts,” he added.
Thielen also observed that Bitcoin’s mini correction is similar to the one that occurred in April and June 2024, where over-the-counter (OTC) desks were involved in a massive sell-off. However, with their positions starting to improve, the sell-off appears to be over for now. Data from various OTC desks shows that their Bitcoin balances have recovered, indicating that the selling current correction also suggests that concerns about the risk of further declines are relatively small. With volatility remaining below 50 percent, interest in protecting long positions with put options also appears low.
Low volatility during the current correction also suggests that concerns about the risk of further declines are relatively small. With volatility remaining below 50 percent, interest in protecting long positions with put options also appears low.
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“This shows that market sentiment is not too worried about the potential for a deeper decline, and there is an opportunity for future price increases, especially if the US economy remains stable,” he said again.
Thielen concluded that Bitcoin’s mini correction may be over. With the outflow of whales and token unlocks having pressured the market over the past few months, it is time for the market to recover. If the US economy continues to show solid growth, Bitcoin and stock prices may rise again in the near future.
The article has appeared on Blockchainmedia